食物經(jīng)濟與管理團隊在新冠肺炎疫情期間食物系統(tǒng)韌性的研究中取得進展

　　近日，華中農(nóng)業(yè)大學食物經(jīng)濟與管理團隊研究成果以“How online food delivery platforms contributed to the resilience of the urban food system in China during the COVID-19 pandemic”為題在食品安全領(lǐng)域?qū)W術(shù)期刊Global Food Security發(fā)表，研究探究了中國新冠肺炎疫情期間線上外賣食品配送平臺如何提高食物系統(tǒng)韌性。

 

　　突如其來的新冠肺炎疫情及相應的防疫措施為全球食物供應系統(tǒng)帶來了巨大挑戰(zhàn)。在封城政策實施期間，中國絕大多數(shù)餐廳暫停營業(yè)，但仍有部分餐廳選擇將傳統(tǒng)的線下餐飲服務轉(zhuǎn)為外賣和線上配送，在一定程度上滿足了居民在疫情期間的食品需求。在經(jīng)歷新冠肺炎疫情等外部沖擊時，高效的線上外賣食品配送平臺通過改善食品的可得性增強了食品系統(tǒng)供應的韌性。

 

　　該研究基于阿里巴巴旗下餓了么平臺的日度高頻交易數(shù)據(jù)，采用漸進雙重差分法（Staggered DID）和事件研究法（Event Study）估計新冠肺炎疫情期間封城政策和解封政策對線上外賣配送平臺和餐廳績效的影響。研究表明，在城市封鎖期間，部分餐廳繼續(xù)運營并提供線上食品配送。在城市解封后，平臺中營業(yè)的餐廳數(shù)量及相應配送服務的數(shù)量都出現(xiàn)反彈，并隨著時間進一步增長。事件研究法的結(jié)果表明，封城后線上食品配送業(yè)務的調(diào)整路徑與解封后的調(diào)整路徑不同。異質(zhì)性分析的結(jié)果還顯示，疫情期間的封城和解封措施對不同類型的餐廳/菜品的影響存在差異。該研究還探究了封城政策對線上食品配送可能的影響機制，并通過一系列穩(wěn)健性、安慰劑檢驗證實了主要結(jié)論的穩(wěn)健性。

 

　　該研究以線上外賣配送平臺為例，首次提供了新冠肺炎疫情對外賣消費影響的微觀證據(jù)，拓寬了新冠肺炎疫情對食物消費影響的研究，也為應對食物系統(tǒng)外部沖擊提供了政策參考。該研究證明了線上外賣食品配送平臺在應對意外沖擊時對城市食品系統(tǒng)韌性的積極貢獻，從全球視角來看，對于保障全球糧食供應和幫助城市應對意外沖擊的政策設(shè)計具有指導意義。

 

　　經(jīng)濟管理學院閔師教授為論文通訊作者，經(jīng)濟管理學院2018級本科畢業(yè)生趙方瀟為論文第二作者，與北京大學王曉兵研究員、黃季焜教授、中國農(nóng)業(yè)大學全球食物經(jīng)濟與政策研究院（AGFEP）田旭教授、樊勝根教授、哥廷根大學Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel教授合作撰文。

 

　　【英文摘要】

 

　　We use high-frequency data to quantify the nature and performance of online food delivery platforms during the COVID-19 pandemic in urban China, and to estimate the short- and long-term effects of lockdown and reopening measures. A staggered difference-in-differences （DID） estimation strategy and event study approach are used to identify the effects of lockdown and reopening measures on the performance of online food delivery platforms and restaurants. The results indicate that some restaurants continued to operate and offer online food delivery while lockdowns were in effect. Both the number of operating restaurants and their online food delivery services rebounded and experienced further growth after lockdowns were lifted. The adjustment path of the online food delivery business following the implementation of lockdowns differed from the adjustment path following the lifting of lockdowns. The lockdown and reopening measures did not affect all types of restaurant/cuisine equally. We also examine possible impact mechanisms of lockdown measures on online food delivery and restaurants, and conduct robustness checks to confirm the stability of the main findings. This study contributes to the existing literature by confirming the positive contribution of online food delivery to the resilience of urban food systems in response to unexpected external shocks. Our results have implications for the design of policies to guarantee food supply and help urban food systems adapt to unexpected shocks.

 

　　論文鏈接：https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211912422000487#cebib0010